Faster
,
more
powerful
and
cheaper:
Hardware,
networks,
and
software
will
become
f
aster
,
more
powerful
and
cheaper
in
the
next
couple
of
years.
This
prediction
can
basically
be
found
by
extrapolation
.
For
instance,
hardware
is
providing
more
and
more
power
at
decreasing
prices.
This
observation
was pressed
by
Gordon
Moore
of
Intel
who
showed
that
the
cost-effectiveness
of
microchip
technology
doubles
every
18
months.
Within
our
prediction
scope
of
five
to
ten
years,
Moore’
s
la
w
will
continue
to
hold,
although
development
will
slow
down
to
some
extent
[Kan97
].
Based
on
this
extrapolation,
microprocessors
as
powerful
as
a
Cray-2
are
expected
around
the
year
2005.
Netw
orks
as
well
as
softw
are
sho
w
similar
progress:
Currently
,
the
a
v
ailable
bandwidth
quadru-
ples
approximately
e
v
ery
1.5
years
[M
̈
ul98
].
Ho
we
v
er
,
softw
are
impro
v
ements
are
rather
dif
ficult
to
quantify
.
But
re
gardless
the
kind
of
softw
are
you
consider
,
you
can
notice
an
enormous
progress
in
the
last
decades.
F
or
instance,
consider
the
history
of
databases,
starting
out
with
hierarchical
and
netw
ork-based
databases
and
ending
up
with
relational
and
object-oriented
databases.
Or
the
de
v
elopment
of
of
fice
softw
are
b
undles,
be
ginning
with
simple
te
xt
editors
and
ending
up
with
v
ery
comple
x
multi-user
editors
for
te
xt,
presentations,
databases,
calculations,
and
so
on
No comments:
Post a Comment